Ceasefire Predictions & Odds· 144 markets
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$52k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$52k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$62.4m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$2.8m today
1,230
$62.4m Vol.🔥$2.8m today$1.5m Liq.1,230
73%
December 31
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$387k Vol.
$47k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$387k Vol.$47k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
40%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$60k Vol.
$15k Liq.
5
Ends in 3 months
$60k Vol.$15k Liq.5Ends in 3 months
52%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.1m Vol.
$267k Liq.
🔥$217k today
20,363
Ends in about 14 hours
$29.1m Vol.🔥$217k today$267k Liq.20,363Ends in about 14 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$456k Liq.
🔥$85k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$85k today$456k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$239k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$239k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$356k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$356k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
21%
June 30
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$9k Liq.
26
Ends in about 14 hours
$126k Vol.$9k Liq.26Ends in about 14 hours
1%
Yes
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
$4.0m Vol.
$8k Liq.
985
Ends in 3 months
$4.0m Vol.$8k Liq.985Ends in 3 months
28%
June 30
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$18k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$18k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$96k Vol.
$47k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$96k Vol.$47k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$9.0m Vol.
$370k Liq.
🔥$557k today
204
Ends in 1 day
$9.0m Vol.🔥$557k today$370k Liq.204Ends in 1 day
44%
June 30
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$66k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$66k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
$385k Vol.
$90k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
$385k Vol.$90k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
0%
Yes