Defense Predictions & Odds· 126 markets
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
$46k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$46k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
8%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
$282k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$282k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
0%
Yes
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
$6k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$6k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 3 months
27%
Yes
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$16k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$16k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
66%
Yes
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
$351k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$351k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
2%
Yes
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
$133k Vol.
$18k Liq.
7
Ends in about 13 hours
$133k Vol.$18k Liq.7Ends in about 13 hours
73%
December 31
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
$556k Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$556k Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
26%
April 30
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$44k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$44k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
18%
Yes
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$99k Vol.
$14k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$99k Vol.$14k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
$1.5m Vol.
$18k Liq.
78
Ends in 3 months
$1.5m Vol.$18k Liq.78Ends in 3 months
14%
June 30
43%
Yes
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$139k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$139k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
18%
Yes
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$102k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$102k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes
17%
Isfahan nuclear facility
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
43%
April 30
47%
Yes
Sports · MLS
MLS: 2026 Defender of the Year
$27k Vol.
$52k Liq.
Ends in 8 months
$27k Vol.$52k Liq.Ends in 8 months
38%
Andrew Privett