Federal Predictions & Odds· 2854 markets

O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$102k Vol.
$10k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months

6%

Yes

W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

$35k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

W
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

$72k Vol.
$24k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

93%

Kevin Cramer

W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$6.0m Vol.
$292k Liq.
7
Ends in 8 months

28%

3.75%

K
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

$66k Vol.
$33k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month

2%

Yes

W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

$78k Vol.
$18k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

51%

Palantir

F
Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

$45.5m Vol.
$4.5m Liq.
🔥$3.5m today
38
Ends in 27 days

98%

No change

W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

$17.8m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
74
Ends in 7 months

96%

Kevin Warsh

W
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

$23.1m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$197k today
829
Ends in 9 months

17%

Yes

H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$15.4m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$181k today
61
Ends in 9 months

32%

0 (0 bps)

U
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

$2.6m Vol.
$108k Liq.
🔥$169k today
131
Ended

24%

April 30

F
Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

$5.2m Vol.
$940k Liq.
🔥$117k today
22
Ends in 3 months

90%

No change

W
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

$4.5m Vol.
$217k Liq.
🔥$68k today
117
Ends in 6 months

69%

United Russia (ER)

F
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$792k Vol.
$51k Liq.
6
Ends in 8 months

14%

Yes

W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

$1.4m Vol.
$335k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 months

52%

Democratic Party

W
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$533k Vol.
$35k Liq.
31
Ends in 9 months

6%

Yes

F
Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

$3.2m Vol.
$290k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

80%

No change

F
Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.3m Vol.
$185k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

F
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$406k Vol.
$103k Liq.
34
Ends in 27 days

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

L
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

$1.6m Vol.
$281k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months

90%

SpaceX