Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 120 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$65.2m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$3.6m today
1,276
$65.2m Vol.🔥$3.6m today$1.3m Liq.1,276
74%
December 31
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$60k Vol.
$6k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$60k Vol.$6k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
33%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$65k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$65k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
47%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$40k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$40k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$34k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$34k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
37%
Leadership Change
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ended
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ended
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.9m Vol.
$458k Liq.
🔥$241k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.9m Vol.🔥$241k today$458k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,427
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,427Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$229k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.$229k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
0%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$67k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$67k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$126k Vol.
$8k Liq.
26
Ends in 3 months
$126k Vol.$8k Liq.26Ends in 3 months
51%
April 30
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
3%
Yes
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?
$7k Vol.
$860 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$860 Liq.1Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31, 2026
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
$4.0m Vol.
$8k Liq.
986
Ends in 3 months
$4.0m Vol.$8k Liq.986Ends in 3 months
27%
June 30
