Humanitarian Pause Predictions & Odds· 116 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$63.1m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$2.8m today
1,260
$63.1m Vol.🔥$2.8m today$1.4m Liq.1,260
73%
December 31
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$54k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$54k Vol.$9k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$40k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$40k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$62k Vol.
$15k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$62k Vol.$15k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$35k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$35k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,363
Ends in about 9 hours
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,363Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$464k Liq.
🔥$87k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$87k today$464k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$230k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$230k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$319k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$319k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$67k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$67k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
26%
Yes
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31?
$126k Vol.
$10k Liq.
26
Ends in about 9 hours
$126k Vol.$10k Liq.26Ends in about 9 hours
1%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
$385k Vol.
$89k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$385k Vol.$89k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
3%
Yes
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?
$7k Vol.
$831 Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$831 Liq.1Ends in 9 months
71%
December 31, 2026
Middle East · Iran Regime
Internet Access restored in Iran by...?
$101k Vol.
$15k Liq.
27
Ends in about 1 month
$101k Vol.$15k Liq.27Ends in about 1 month
18%
April 30
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
$4.0m Vol.
$8k Liq.
985
Ends in 3 months
$4.0m Vol.$8k Liq.985Ends in 3 months
28%
June 30