Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 117 markets
U
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$80.9m Vol.
$2.6m Liq.
🔥$8.7m today
1,403
$80.9m Vol.🔥$8.7m today$2.6m Liq.1,403
73%
December 31
W
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$9.2m Vol.
$158k Liq.
263
Ends in 9 months
$9.2m Vol.$158k Liq.263Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
I
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$430k Vol.
$38k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$430k Vol.$38k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
41%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$96k Vol.
$12k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$96k Vol.$12k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
33%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$102k Vol.
$43k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$102k Vol.$43k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
54%
US x Iran Ceasefire
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$75k Vol.
$22k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$75k Vol.$22k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
52%
Yes
T
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
$52k Vol.
$52k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$52k Vol.$52k Liq.Ends in 9 months
47%
Yes
I
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$30k Vol.
$11k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$30k Vol.$11k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
22%
Leadership Change
T
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?
$521 Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$521 Vol.$11k Liq.Ends in 3 months
9%
Yes
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$35k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$35k Vol.$16k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$42k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 28 days
$42k Vol.$12k Liq.13Ends in 28 days
25%
April 30
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$11k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$11k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$388k Liq.
🔥$497k today
Ends in 28 days
$1.9m Vol.🔥$497k today$388k Liq.Ends in 28 days
2%
Yes
W
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
$7k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$7k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$14k Vol.
$201k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$14k Vol.$201k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
5%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$490k Liq.
🔥$74k today
5,428
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$74k today$490k Liq.5,428Ends in 9 months
30%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$2k Vol.
$124k Liq.
Ends in over 1 year
$2k Vol.$124k Liq.Ends in over 1 year
51%
Yes