Negotiations Predictions & Odds· 117 markets
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$63.1m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$2.8m today
1,260
$63.1m Vol.🔥$2.8m today$1.4m Liq.1,260
73%
December 31
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$54k Vol.
$9k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$54k Vol.$9k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$40k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$40k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
38%
June 30
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
$9.1m Vol.
$157k Liq.
264
Ends in 9 months
$9.1m Vol.$157k Liq.264Ends in 9 months
16%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$62k Vol.
$15k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$62k Vol.$15k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$14k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$14k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$35k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$35k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
50%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
$50k Vol.
$57k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$50k Vol.$57k Liq.Ends in 9 months
67%
Yes
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
$1.1m Vol.
$16k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$1.1m Vol.$16k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$28k Vol.
$12k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$28k Vol.$12k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
34%
Leadership Change
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
11%
Yes
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$28k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$28k Vol.$15k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
41%
April 30
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$9k Liq.
37
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$9k Liq.37Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$230k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$1.1m Vol.$230k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
$7k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$7k Vol.$6k Liq.Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
$12.4m Vol.
$464k Liq.
🔥$87k today
5,424
Ends in 9 months
$12.4m Vol.🔥$87k today$464k Liq.5,424Ends in 9 months
28%
Yes
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.7m Vol.
$319k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$3.7m Vol.$319k Liq.Ends in 3 months
14%
Yes