Public Policy Predictions & Odds· 109 markets
M
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
$213k Vol.
$30k Liq.
62
Ends in 3 months
$213k Vol.$30k Liq.62Ends in 3 months
8%
Yes
W
24%
Yes
W
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1.6m Vol.
$10k Liq.
155
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.$10k Liq.155Ends in 3 months
20%
Yes
U
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$494k Vol.
$27k Liq.
41
Ends in 27 days
$494k Vol.$27k Liq.41Ends in 27 days
7%
Yes
U
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$237k Vol.
$16k Liq.
10
Ends in 27 days
$237k Vol.$16k Liq.10Ends in 27 days
8%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$43k Vol.
$12k Liq.
13
Ends in 27 days
$43k Vol.$12k Liq.13Ends in 27 days
18%
April 30
W
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by March 31?
$539k Vol.
$19k Liq.
🔥$125k today
173
$539k Vol.🔥$125k today$19k Liq.173
16%
Yes
W
White House # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
$10k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 8 days
$10k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 8 days
36%
160-179
M
51%
Yes
W
White House # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?
$123k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$123k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in 1 day
86%
200+
W
White House # posts March 31 - April 7, 2026?
$33k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$33k Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 5 days
48%
200+
M
MegaETH market cap (FDV) one day after launch?
$14.5m Vol.
$431k Liq.
🔥$167k today
258
Ends in 3 months
$14.5m Vol.🔥$167k today$431k Liq.258Ends in 3 months
62%
>$600M
L
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$37k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$37k Vol.$18k Liq.Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
W
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
$55k Vol.
$20k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$20k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes
F
84%
Pause–Pause–Pause
W
Crypto
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?
$7k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$7k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
87%
50
E
Evo Morales arrested by May 31
$1k Vol.
$11k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$1k Vol.$11k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
19%
Yes
U
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by...?
$108k Vol.
$2k Liq.
54
Ends in 3 months
$108k Vol.$2k Liq.54Ends in 3 months
71%
Yes