Federal Predictions & Odds· 1212 markets
O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
W
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$23k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$23k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
96%
Kevin Cramer
W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$309k Liq.
9
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.$309k Liq.9Ends in 8 months
25%
3.5%
W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
$77k Vol.
$24k Liq.
3
Ends in 9 months
$77k Vol.$24k Liq.3Ends in 9 months
51%
Palantir
K
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
2
Ends in about 1 month
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.2Ends in about 1 month
3%
Yes
F
Fed decision in April?
$40.3m Vol.
$3.4m Liq.
🔥$2.0m today
27
Ends in 29 days
$40.3m Vol.🔥$2.0m today$3.4m Liq.27Ends in 29 days
98%
No change
F
Fed Decision in July?
$3.1m Vol.
$275k Liq.
🔥$699k today
1
Ends in 4 months
$3.1m Vol.🔥$699k today$275k Liq.1Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$16.0m Vol.
$1.6m Liq.
🔥$340k today
74
Ends in 7 months
$16.0m Vol.🔥$340k today$1.6m Liq.74Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
W
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
$22.2m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$295k today
820
Ends in 9 months
$22.2m Vol.🔥$295k today$1.1m Liq.820Ends in 9 months
17%
December 31
F
Fed Decision in June?
$4.8m Vol.
$905k Liq.
🔥$267k today
15
Ends in 3 months
$4.8m Vol.🔥$267k today$905k Liq.15Ends in 3 months
89%
No change
H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.9m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$242k today
61
Ends in 9 months
$14.9m Vol.🔥$242k today$1.1m Liq.61Ends in 9 months
35%
0 (0 bps)
W
Who visited Epstein's Island?
$1.6m Vol.
$338k Liq.
🔥$172k today
122
Ends in 3 months
$1.6m Vol.🔥$172k today$338k Liq.122Ends in 3 months
20%
Richard Branson
U
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
$2.3m Vol.
$264k Liq.
🔥$131k today
126
Ended
$2.3m Vol.🔥$131k today$264k Liq.126Ended
28%
April 30
F
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$744k Vol.
$48k Liq.
🔥$74k today
28
Ends in 8 months
$744k Vol.🔥$74k today$48k Liq.28Ends in 8 months
19%
Yes
W
Which party will win the House in 2026?
$4.1m Vol.
$496k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$4.1m Vol.$496k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
85%
Democratic Party
W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
$1.4m Vol.
$377k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$1.4m Vol.$377k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
51%
Democratic Party
J
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$1.9m Vol.
$140k Liq.
37
Ends in about 1 month
$1.9m Vol.$140k Liq.37Ends in about 1 month
1%
May 14
W
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
$4.4m Vol.
$183k Liq.
114
Ends in 6 months
$4.4m Vol.$183k Liq.114Ends in 6 months
71%
United Russia (ER)
F
64%
December Meeting