Federal Predictions & Odds· 1208 markets
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
$34k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$34k Vol.$13k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
14%
Yes
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
$100k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
26%
Yes
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$25k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$25k Liq.Ends in 3 months
95%
Kevin Cramer
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$5.9m Vol.
$294k Liq.
🔥$174k today
8
Ends in 8 months
$5.9m Vol.🔥$174k today$294k Liq.8Ends in 8 months
35%
3.75%
Which companies will the US take a stake in?
$77k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$77k Vol.$20k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
49%
Palantir
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
$65k Vol.
$31k Liq.
1
Ends in about 2 months
$65k Vol.$31k Liq.1Ends in about 2 months
3%
Yes
Fed decision in April?
$39.2m Vol.
$3.4m Liq.
🔥$2.2m today
22
Ends in 29 days
$39.2m Vol.🔥$2.2m today$3.4m Liq.22Ends in 29 days
97%
No change
Fed Decision in July?
$2.8m Vol.
$240k Liq.
🔥$536k today
Ends in 4 months
$2.8m Vol.🔥$536k today$240k Liq.Ends in 4 months
78%
No change
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
$22.0m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$428k today
818
Ends in 9 months
$22.0m Vol.🔥$428k today$1.3m Liq.818Ends in 9 months
17%
December 31
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$282k today
58
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$282k today$1.2m Liq.58Ends in 9 months
34%
0 (0 bps)
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
$15.7m Vol.
$1.7m Liq.
🔥$203k today
69
Ends in 7 months
$15.7m Vol.🔥$203k today$1.7m Liq.69Ends in 7 months
95%
Kevin Warsh
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?
$2.2m Vol.
$137k Liq.
🔥$196k today
122
Ends in about 4 hours
$2.2m Vol.🔥$196k today$137k Liq.122Ends in about 4 hours
28%
April 30
Fed Decision in June?
$4.7m Vol.
$751k Liq.
🔥$158k today
14
Ends in 3 months
$4.7m Vol.🔥$158k today$751k Liq.14Ends in 3 months
89%
No change
Who visited Epstein's Island?
$1.4m Vol.
$329k Liq.
🔥$128k today
120
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.🔥$128k today$329k Liq.120Ends in 3 months
32%
Kevin Spacey
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$222k Liq.
🔥$97k today
17
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.🔥$97k today$222k Liq.17Ends in 9 months
64%
↓ 3.25%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$702k Vol.
$47k Liq.
🔥$52k today
27
Ends in 8 months
$702k Vol.🔥$52k today$47k Liq.27Ends in 8 months
21%
Yes
Which party will win the House in 2026?
$4.1m Vol.
$458k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$4.1m Vol.$458k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
85%
Democratic Party
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
$1.3m Vol.
$305k Liq.
1
Ends in 7 months
$1.3m Vol.$305k Liq.1Ends in 7 months
52%
Democratic Party
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
$436k Vol.
$24k Liq.
11
Ends in about 2 months
$436k Vol.$24k Liq.11Ends in about 2 months
52%
May 15
Eric Adams arrested by March 31?
$16k Vol.
$15k Liq.
2
Ends in about 4 hours
$16k Vol.$15k Liq.2Ends in about 4 hours
0%
Yes