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O
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

Tech·OpenAI

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

$102k Vol.
$9k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months

5%

Yes

W
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Politics·Germany

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

$35k Vol.
$24k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

14%

Yes

W
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Politics·Congress

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

$72k Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

93%

Kevin Cramer

W
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Politics·Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$6.0m Vol.
$292k Liq.
7
Ends in 8 months

26%

3.5%

K
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

$66k Vol.
$33k Liq.
1
Ends in about 1 month

2%

Yes

W
Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Politics·Trump

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

$78k Vol.
$20k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

51%

Palantir

F
Fed decision in April?

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$45.9m Vol.
$4.4m Liq.
🔥$2.2m today
39
Ends in 26 days

98%

No change

W
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Politics·Trump

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

$18.0m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$1.1m today
74
Ends in 7 months

96%

Kevin Warsh

W
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Culture·Science

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

$23.1m Vol.
$1.1m Liq.
🔥$139k today
829
Ends in 9 months

17%

Yes

H
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economy·Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$15.4m Vol.
$1.2m Liq.
🔥$138k today
61
Ends in 9 months

31%

0 (0 bps)

F
Fed Decision in June?

Politics·Economic Policy

Fed Decision in June?

$5.3m Vol.
$988k Liq.
🔥$98k today
22
Ends in 3 months

90%

No change

U
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

Geopolitics·Strait of Hormuz

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

$2.6m Vol.
$155k Liq.
🔥$91k today
131
Ended

23%

April 30

W
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Elections·World Elections

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

$4.5m Vol.
$256k Liq.
117
Ends in 6 months

70%

United Russia (ER)

W
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Politics·US Election

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

$1.4m Vol.
$376k Liq.
6
Ends in 7 months

52%

Democratic Party

W
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Politics·Epstein

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$533k Vol.
$35k Liq.
31
Ends in 9 months

6%

Yes

F
Fed Decision in July?

Economy·fomc

Fed Decision in July?

$3.2m Vol.
$297k Liq.
Ends in 4 months

80%

No change

F
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$793k Vol.
$40k Liq.
6
Ends in 8 months

14%

Yes

F
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$412k Vol.
$93k Liq.
36
Ends in 26 days

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

F
Fed rate cut by...?

Economy·Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

$1.3m Vol.
$183k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months

64%

December Meeting

K
Kash Patel out by...?

Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

$81k Vol.
$21k Liq.
2

38%

December 31