Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 156 markets
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 20 days
$4k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 20 days
66%
Yes
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$5k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$5k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
US forces enter Iran by..?
$53.1m Vol.
$1.4m Liq.
🔥$8.1m today
4,924
$53.1m Vol.🔥$8.1m today$1.4m Liq.4,924
79%
December 31
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$2.5m Vol.
$300k Liq.
🔥$303k today
Ends in 9 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$303k today$300k Liq.Ends in 9 months
57%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
How many times will the US strike Somalia in March?
$763k Vol.
$80k Liq.
🔥$77k today
Ends in 5 days
$763k Vol.🔥$77k today$80k Liq.Ends in 5 days
96%
6-9
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$16k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$16k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
66%
Yes
US strike on Cuba by...?
$2.8m Vol.
$114k Liq.
49
Ends in 9 months
$2.8m Vol.$114k Liq.49Ends in 9 months
39%
December 31
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
$108k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 13 hours
$108k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 13 hours
3%
Yes
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
$231k Vol.
$48k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$231k Vol.$48k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
24%
April 30
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
20%
April 30
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?
$9k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 16 days
$9k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 16 days
31%
Yes
28%
June 30
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$63k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$63k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$45k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$45k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
June 30
22%
December 31
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
$51k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$51k Vol.$41k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
57%
June 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$232k Vol.
$18k Liq.
11
Ends in about 1 month
$232k Vol.$18k Liq.11Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$44k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$44k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
18%
Yes
1%
Yes
