Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 156 markets
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 20 days
$4k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 20 days
66%
Yes
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$5k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$5k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
21%
Yes
US forces enter Iran by..?
$52.8m Vol.
$1.7m Liq.
🔥$8.0m today
4,886
$52.8m Vol.🔥$8.0m today$1.7m Liq.4,886
79%
December 31
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$2.5m Vol.
$261k Liq.
🔥$360k today
Ends in 9 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$360k today$261k Liq.Ends in 9 months
57%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
How many times will the US strike Somalia in March?
$758k Vol.
$78k Liq.
🔥$71k today
Ends in 5 days
$758k Vol.🔥$71k today$78k Liq.Ends in 5 days
96%
6-9
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$17k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$17k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
64%
Yes
39%
December 31
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
$107k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 14 hours
$107k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 14 hours
2%
Yes
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
$230k Vol.
$51k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$230k Vol.$51k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
24%
April 30
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
20%
April 30
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?
$8k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 16 days
$8k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 16 days
31%
Yes
28%
June 30
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$77k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$77k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
22%
December 31
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
June 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$232k Vol.
$16k Liq.
11
Ends in about 1 month
$232k Vol.$16k Liq.11Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
$51k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$51k Vol.$41k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
57%
June 30
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$44k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$44k Vol.$10k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
18%
Yes
1%
Yes
