Intelligence Predictions & Odds· 156 markets
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?
$4k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 19 days
$4k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 19 days
64%
Yes
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
$45k Vol.
$5k Liq.
9
Ends in 9 months
$45k Vol.$5k Liq.9Ends in 9 months
22%
Yes
US forces enter Iran by..?
$53.6m Vol.
$1.5m Liq.
🔥$8.0m today
4,992
$53.6m Vol.🔥$8.0m today$1.5m Liq.4,992
75%
December 31
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
$2.5m Vol.
$337k Liq.
🔥$257k today
Ends in 9 months
$2.5m Vol.🔥$257k today$337k Liq.Ends in 9 months
57%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
How many times will the US strike Somalia in March?
$766k Vol.
$84k Liq.
🔥$79k today
Ends in 4 days
$766k Vol.🔥$79k today$84k Liq.Ends in 4 days
96%
6-9
38%
December 31
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$133k Vol.
$17k Liq.
19
Ends in 3 months
$133k Vol.$17k Liq.19Ends in 3 months
65%
Yes
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
$109k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 11 hours
$109k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in about 11 hours
2%
Yes
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
$233k Vol.
$46k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$233k Vol.$46k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
24%
April 30
US announces military support of Kurds by...?
$482k Vol.
$10k Liq.
40
Ends in about 1 month
$482k Vol.$10k Liq.40Ends in about 1 month
16%
April 30
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?
$9k Vol.
$10k Liq.
Ends in 15 days
$9k Vol.$10k Liq.Ends in 15 days
32%
Yes
US strike on Mexico by...?
$3.2m Vol.
$69k Liq.
161
Ends in 9 months
$3.2m Vol.$69k Liq.161Ends in 9 months
24%
December 31
28%
June 30
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
$1.4m Vol.
$44k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.4m Vol.$44k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
June 30
22%
December 31
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
$44k Vol.
$12k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month
$44k Vol.$12k Liq.3Ends in about 1 month
19%
Yes
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
$51k Vol.
$42k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$51k Vol.$42k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
57%
June 30
US announces military support of Iran opposition by...?
$232k Vol.
$15k Liq.
10
Ends in about 1 month
$232k Vol.$15k Liq.10Ends in about 1 month
8%
April 30
