Macro Predictions & Odds· 182 markets
Brazil Presidential Election
$34.1m Vol.
$1.9m Liq.
🔥$951k today
3,700
Ends in 6 months
$34.1m Vol.🔥$951k today$1.9m Liq.3,700Ends in 6 months
42%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
$39.7m Vol.
$1.8m Liq.
🔥$634k today
2
Ends in 12 days
$39.7m Vol.🔥$634k today$1.8m Liq.2Ends in 12 days
64%
Péter Magyar
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$1.6m Vol.
$83k Liq.
🔥$102k today
104
Ends in 30 days
$1.6m Vol.🔥$102k today$83k Liq.104Ends in 30 days
21%
Yes
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$740k Vol.
$49k Liq.
🔥$80k today
28
Ends in 8 months
$740k Vol.🔥$80k today$49k Liq.28Ends in 8 months
18%
Yes
March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)
$834k Vol.
$89k Liq.
1
Ends in 10 days
$834k Vol.$89k Liq.1Ends in 10 days
50%
≥3.4%
99%
≥2.8%
23%
2.5–3.0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$7.6m Vol.
$173k Liq.
706
Ends in 9 months
$7.6m Vol.$173k Liq.706Ends in 9 months
8%
Yes
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?
$207k Vol.
$30k Liq.
Ends in 17 days
$207k Vol.$30k Liq.Ends in 17 days
48%
5.0-5.5%
US recession by end of 2026?
$923k Vol.
$76k Liq.
52
Ends in 10 months
$923k Vol.$76k Liq.52Ends in 10 months
38%
Yes
89%
≥0.8%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1.3m Vol.
$186k Liq.
18
Ends in 9 months
$1.3m Vol.$186k Liq.18Ends in 9 months
63%
↓ 3.25%
99%
2.6%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
$342k Vol.
$139k Liq.
22
Ends in 9 months
$342k Vol.$139k Liq.22Ends in 9 months
98%
Above 3%
30%
4.4%
31%
100k+
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
$10k Vol.
$1k Liq.
Ends in 11 months
$10k Vol.$1k Liq.Ends in 11 months
87%
Up
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
$194k Vol.
$35k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 months
$194k Vol.$35k Liq.15Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
72%
4.0–5.0%
Argentina Monthly Inflation - March
$15k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in 14 days
$15k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in 14 days
72%
3.1–3.3%