Security Predictions & Odds· 253 markets

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$15k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$15k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes

22%
June 30

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$23k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes

When will the DHS shutdown end?
$522k Vol.
$144k Liq.
🔥$67k today
Ends in about 1 month
$522k Vol.🔥$67k today$144k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
24%
April 13-16

When will the DHS shutdown end?
$1.7m Vol.
$81k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$1.7m Vol.$81k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
100%
After March 31

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$81k Vol.
$56k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours
$81k Vol.$56k Liq.1Ends in about 7 hours
9%
Jacky Rosen

1%
Yes

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
72
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.72Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
$10.6m Vol.
$3.9m Liq.
🔥$87k today
Ends in about 7 hours
$10.6m Vol.🔥$87k today$3.9m Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
0%
Yes

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$3.9m Vol.
$193k Liq.
🔥$60k today
170
Ends in almost 2 years
$3.9m Vol.🔥$60k today$193k Liq.170Ends in almost 2 years
63%
Other

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$158k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.9m Vol.$158k Liq.Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes

Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$971k Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$971k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
48%
Mojtaba Khamenei

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
$108k Vol.
$190k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
$108k Vol.$190k Liq.Ends in 6 months
7%
Yes

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?
$7k Vol.
$455 Liq.
Ends in about 3 hours
$7k Vol.$455 Liq.Ends in about 3 hours
62%
Up

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?
$28k Vol.
$7 Liq.
Ends in about 3 hours
$28k Vol.$7 Liq.Ends in about 3 hours
49%
Up

88%
Olivia

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
$556k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours
$556k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in about 7 hours
24%
April 30

Number of TSA passengers March 30 - April 5?
$3k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$3k Vol.$7k Liq.Ends in 5 days
35%
17.5-18m