Security Predictions & Odds· 244 markets

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$100k Vol.
$11k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months
$100k Vol.$11k Liq.11Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes

21%
June 30

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$13k Liq.Ends in 3 months
16%
Yes

When will the DHS shutdown end?
$520k Vol.
$131k Liq.
🔥$116k today
Ends in about 1 month
$520k Vol.🔥$116k today$131k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
26%
After April 30

When will the DHS shutdown end?
$1.6m Vol.
$82k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$1.6m Vol.$82k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
100%
After March 31

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?
$80k Vol.
$59k Liq.
1
Ends in about 9 hours
$80k Vol.$59k Liq.1Ends in about 9 hours
8%
Catherine Cortez Masto

1%
Yes

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
71
Ends in 9 months
$14.7m Vol.🔥$359k today$536k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
10%
Yes

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
$10.6m Vol.
$3.9m Liq.
🔥$106k today
Ends in about 9 hours
$10.6m Vol.🔥$106k today$3.9m Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
0%
Yes

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
$3.9m Vol.
$184k Liq.
🔥$83k today
170
Ends in almost 2 years
$3.9m Vol.🔥$83k today$184k Liq.170Ends in almost 2 years
63%
Other

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
$1.9m Vol.
$97k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$1.9m Vol.$97k Liq.Ends in 3 months
4%
Yes

Iran leader end of 2026?
$5.6m Vol.
$841k Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months
$5.6m Vol.$841k Liq.71Ends in 9 months
47%
Mojtaba Khamenei

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
$107k Vol.
$141k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
$107k Vol.$141k Liq.Ends in 6 months
7%
Yes

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?
$7k Vol.
$373 Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$7k Vol.$373 Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
57%
Up

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?
$28k Vol.
$10 Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$28k Vol.$10 Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
49%
Up

88%
Olivia

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
$556k Vol.
$17k Liq.
Ends in about 9 hours
$556k Vol.$17k Liq.Ends in about 9 hours
23%
April 30

Number of TSA passengers March 30 - April 5?
$3k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 5 days
$3k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 5 days
45%
18-18.5m