Security Predictions & Odds· 253 markets

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

$100k Vol.
$15k Liq.
11
Ends in 3 months

12%

Yes

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

Israel x Syria security agreement by...?

$758k Vol.
$5k Liq.
113
Ended

22%

June 30

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

$129k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

16%

Yes

When will the DHS shutdown end?

When will the DHS shutdown end?

$522k Vol.
$144k Liq.
🔥$67k today
Ends in about 1 month

24%

April 13-16

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

$1.1m Vol.
$36k Liq.
Ended

99%

48+ days

When will the DHS shutdown end?

When will the DHS shutdown end?

$1.7m Vol.
$81k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours

100%

After March 31

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

$81k Vol.
$56k Liq.
1
Ends in about 7 hours

9%

Jacky Rosen

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

$34k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 14 days

1%

Yes

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$14.7m Vol.
$536k Liq.
🔥$359k today
72
Ends in 9 months

10%

Yes

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

$10.6m Vol.
$3.9m Liq.
🔥$87k today
Ends in about 7 hours

0%

Yes

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

$3.9m Vol.
$193k Liq.
🔥$60k today
170
Ends in almost 2 years

63%

Other

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

$1.9m Vol.
$158k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

4%

Yes

Number of TSA Passengers March 30?

Number of TSA Passengers March 30?

$30k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ended

73%

2.6M-2.8M

Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

$5.6m Vol.
$971k Liq.
71
Ends in 9 months

48%

Mojtaba Khamenei

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

$108k Vol.
$190k Liq.
Ends in 6 months

7%

Yes

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?

Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 30?

$7k Vol.
$455 Liq.
Ends in about 3 hours

62%

Up

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?

EWY (EWY) Up or Down on March 30?

$28k Vol.
$7 Liq.
Ends in about 3 hours

49%

Up

Most popular girl name 2025

Most popular girl name 2025

$281k Vol.
$53k Liq.
21
Ended

88%

Olivia

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?

$556k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in about 7 hours

24%

April 30

Number of TSA passengers March 30 - April 5?

Number of TSA passengers March 30 - April 5?

$3k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 5 days

35%

17.5-18m