Peace Agreements Predictions & Odds· 119 markets
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2.2m Vol.
$49k Liq.
1
Ended
$2.2m Vol.$49k Liq.1Ended
1%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
$157k Vol.
$45k Liq.
Ends in 30 days
$157k Vol.$45k Liq.Ends in 30 days
14%
Yes
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$148k Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$148k Vol.$32k Liq.Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$48k Vol.
$43k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months
$48k Vol.$43k Liq.2Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$3.9m Vol.
$457k Liq.
🔥$242k today
1
Ends in 3 months
$3.9m Vol.🔥$242k today$457k Liq.1Ends in 3 months
12%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.1m Vol.
$229k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days
$1.1m Vol.$229k Liq.1Ends in 30 days
3%
Yes
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?
$126k Vol.
$8k Liq.
26
Ends in 3 months
$126k Vol.$8k Liq.26Ends in 3 months
51%
April 30
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$55k Vol.
$5k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$55k Vol.$5k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
32%
December 31, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$65.0m Vol.
$1.3m Liq.
🔥$3.4m today
1,278
$65.0m Vol.🔥$3.4m today$1.3m Liq.1,278
74%
December 31
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$59k Vol.
$8k Liq.
8
Ends in 3 months
$59k Vol.$8k Liq.8Ends in 3 months
28%
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$65k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$65k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
45%
Yes
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$388k Vol.
$40k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$388k Vol.$40k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
39%
June 30
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$33k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$33k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
46%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
$29k Vol.
$9k Liq.
5
Ends in 9 months
$29k Vol.$9k Liq.5Ends in 9 months
38%
Leadership Change
0%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
$67k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$67k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 3 months
10%
Yes
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
$185k Vol.
$19k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$185k Vol.$19k Liq.Ends in 9 months
25%
Yes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29.5m Vol.
$389k Liq.
🔥$557k today
20,364
Ended
$29.5m Vol.🔥$557k today$389k Liq.20,364Ended
0%
Yes
16%
June 30