Trade Deal Predictions & Odds· 106 markets
T
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
$30k Vol.
$9k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$30k Vol.$9k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
11%
Yes
1
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
$39k Vol.
$14k Liq.
4
Ends in 3 months
$39k Vol.$14k Liq.4Ends in 3 months
5%
Yes
W
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
$187k Vol.
$146k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$187k Vol.$146k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
25%
India
W
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?
$2k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$2k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in 9 months
12%
Yes
U
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$84k Vol.
$19k Liq.
16
Ends in 3 months
$84k Vol.$19k Liq.16Ends in 3 months
37%
June 30
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
$66k Vol.
$12k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$66k Vol.$12k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
55%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
$530k Vol.
$34k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$530k Vol.$34k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
20%
Yes
W
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?
$30k Vol.
$16k Liq.
4
Ends in 30 days
$30k Vol.$16k Liq.4Ends in 30 days
39%
April 30
U
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months
$582k Vol.$8k Liq.38Ends in 3 months
13%
Yes
M
47%
Yes
I
16%
June 30
W
9%
Isfahan nuclear facility
U
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
$447k Vol.
$32k Liq.
30
Ends in 9 months
$447k Vol.$32k Liq.30Ends in 9 months
49%
Yes
W
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$51k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$51k Vol.$12k Liq.Ends in 9 months
13%
Yes
R
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
$384k Vol.
$32k Liq.
16
Ends in 9 months
$384k Vol.$32k Liq.16Ends in 9 months
17%
Yes
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$328k Vol.
$15k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$328k Vol.$15k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
50%
Yes
U
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$921k Vol.
$21k Liq.
26
Ends in 3 months
$921k Vol.$21k Liq.26Ends in 3 months
35%
Yes
W
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$33k Liq.
4
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$33k Liq.4Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
W
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
$341k Vol.
$49k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$341k Vol.$49k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
28%
Somaliland
U
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$129k Vol.
$13k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$129k Vol.$13k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
15%
Yes