Trump Day 1 Predictions & Odds· 123 markets
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$21k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$21k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
48%
Yes
H
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?
$58k Vol.
$52k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$52k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
28%
6–10s
W
75%
Susan Collins - ME-Sen
W
What will Trump say in March?
$993k Vol.
$138k Liq.
🔥$636k today
84
Ended
$993k Vol.🔥$636k today$138k Liq.84Ended
0%
Yes
W
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
$90k Vol.
$30k Liq.
7
Ends in 11 months
$90k Vol.$30k Liq.7Ends in 11 months
86%
1m
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12.0m Vol.
$1.0m Liq.
🔥$1.4m today
381
Ended
$12.0m Vol.🔥$1.4m today$1.0m Liq.381Ended
86%
December 31
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$101k Vol.
$20k Liq.
9
Ends in 3 months
$101k Vol.$20k Liq.9Ends in 3 months
24%
Yes
W
Will Trump nationalize elections?
$14k Vol.
$5k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$14k Vol.$5k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
31%
Yes
N
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
$104k Vol.
$93k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$104k Vol.$93k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
49%
Micah Lasher
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$2.2m Vol.
$188k Liq.
🔥$211k today
Ends in 27 days
$2.2m Vol.🔥$211k today$188k Liq.Ends in 27 days
16%
Yes
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$34k Vol.
$26k Liq.
Ends in about 2 months
$34k Vol.$26k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
39%
Yes
A
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
$34k Vol.
$58k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$34k Vol.$58k Liq.Ends in 27 days
42%
0-10
A
23%
December 31
M
Military action against Iran ends on...?
$125k Vol.
$223k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$125k Vol.$223k Liq.Ends in 27 days
57%
Military action through April 30
W
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)
$30k Vol.
$5k Liq.
Ends in 1 day
$30k Vol.$5k Liq.Ends in 1 day
96%
April 2
M
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$47k Vol.
$97k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$47k Vol.$97k Liq.Ends in 27 days
45%
April 24
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$652k Vol.
$53k Liq.
Ended
$652k Vol.$53k Liq.Ended
4%
20+
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
$23k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$23k Vol.$39k Liq.Ends in 27 days
52%
20+