Trump Day 1 Predictions & Odds· 123 markets
W
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
$329k Vol.
$16k Liq.
36
Ends in 3 months
$329k Vol.$16k Liq.36Ends in 3 months
48%
Yes
H
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?
$58k Vol.
$54k Liq.
8
Ends in 9 months
$58k Vol.$54k Liq.8Ends in 9 months
30%
6–10s
W
66%
Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
W
What will Trump say in March?
$1.0m Vol.
$195k Liq.
🔥$91k today
85
Ended
$1.0m Vol.🔥$91k today$195k Liq.85Ended
0%
Yes
W
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
$90k Vol.
$32k Liq.
7
Ends in 11 months
$90k Vol.$32k Liq.7Ends in 11 months
86%
1m
I
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
$12.4m Vol.
$976k Liq.
🔥$736k today
379
Ended
$12.4m Vol.🔥$736k today$976k Liq.379Ended
85%
December 31
T
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
$6k Vol.
$3k Liq.
Ends in about 20 hours
$6k Vol.$3k Liq.Ends in about 20 hours
8%
Up
U
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
$105k Vol.
$23k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months
$105k Vol.$23k Liq.6Ends in 3 months
20%
Yes
W
Will Trump nationalize elections?
$14k Vol.
$6k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$14k Vol.$6k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
33%
Yes
N
NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
$105k Vol.
$92k Liq.
2
Ends in 3 months
$105k Vol.$92k Liq.2Ends in 3 months
46%
Micah Lasher
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
$2.3m Vol.
$344k Liq.
🔥$199k today
Ends in 27 days
$2.3m Vol.🔥$199k today$344k Liq.Ends in 27 days
12%
Yes
S
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
$88k Vol.
$40k Liq.
🔥$62k today
Ends in about 2 months
$88k Vol.🔥$62k today$40k Liq.Ends in about 2 months
27%
Yes
A
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
$38k Vol.
$61k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$38k Vol.$61k Liq.Ends in 27 days
42%
0-10
A
21%
December 31
M
Military action against Iran ends on...?
$158k Vol.
$191k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$158k Vol.$191k Liq.Ends in 27 days
67%
Military action through April 30
M
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$61k Vol.
$99k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$61k Vol.$99k Liq.Ends in 27 days
44%
April 24
W
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)
$32k Vol.
$602 Liq.
Ends in about 20 hours
$32k Vol.$602 Liq.Ends in about 20 hours
94%
April 3
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
$660k Vol.
$48k Liq.
Ended
$660k Vol.$48k Liq.Ended
3%
20+
W
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
$27k Vol.
$35k Liq.
Ends in 27 days
$27k Vol.$35k Liq.Ends in 27 days
56%
20+