US Bank Predictions & Odds· 110 markets
Another US bank failure by March 31?
$104k Vol.
$8k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$104k Vol.$8k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
US bank failure by April 30?
$7k Vol.
$4k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$7k Vol.$4k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
25%
Yes
Iran military action against ___ by March 31?
$3.6m Vol.
$184k Liq.
🔥$165k today
Ends in about 5 hours
$3.6m Vol.🔥$165k today$184k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
99%
Bahrain
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$168k Vol.
$147k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month
$168k Vol.$147k Liq.Ends in about 1 month
98%
Bahrain
Will SOFR hit __ in March?
$6k Vol.
$2k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$6k Vol.$2k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
56%
↑3.72%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
$352k Vol.
$14k Liq.
Ends in about 5 hours
$352k Vol.$14k Liq.Ends in about 5 hours
2%
Yes
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
$134k Vol.
$97k Liq.
13
Ends in 9 months
$134k Vol.$97k Liq.13Ends in 9 months
65%
Stefan Brodie
Economy
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
$0 Vol.
$3k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$0 Vol.$3k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
24%
Yes
Which banks will fail by June 30?
$357k Vol.
$93k Liq.
7
Ends in 3 months
$357k Vol.$93k Liq.7Ends in 3 months
3%
Scotiabank
How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?
$211 Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in 9 months
$211 Vol.$15k Liq.Ends in 9 months
35%
60+
Games · Sports
U19 World Cup: Bangladesh Under-19s vs USA Under-19s - More Markets
$3k Vol.
$0 Liq.
Ended
$3k Vol.$0 Liq.Ended
83%
Pause–Pause–Pause
Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
$72k Vol.
$22k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
$72k Vol.$22k Liq.Ends in 3 months
94%
Thom Tillis
US recession by end of 2026?
$920k Vol.
$71k Liq.
50
Ends in 10 months
$920k Vol.$71k Liq.50Ends in 10 months
36%
Yes
97%
Pause–Pause–Pause
34%
800–900B
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?
$0 Vol.
$574 Liq.
18
Ends in 3 months
$0 Vol.$574 Liq.18Ends in 3 months
30%
Yes
Economy · Politics
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$8k Vol.
$10k Liq.
4
Ends in 9 months
$8k Vol.$10k Liq.4Ends in 9 months
36%
Yes
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
$97k Vol.
$33k Liq.
3
Ends in 7 months
$97k Vol.$33k Liq.3Ends in 7 months
48%
US x Iran Ceasefire
Politics · Economy
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15k Vol.
$24k Liq.
1
Ends in 9 months
$15k Vol.$24k Liq.1Ends in 9 months
5%
Yes