Roll Predictions & Odds· 139 markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

$1.6m Vol.
$83k Liq.
🔥$102k today
104
Ends in 30 days

21%

Yes

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

61%

20-24

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

$1.6m Vol.
$53k Liq.
1
Ended

97%

0-10

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

$333k Vol.
$47k Liq.
Ends in 3 days

87%

0-10

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

$611k Vol.
$34k Liq.
Ended

4%

20+

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31?

5%

Jacky Rosen

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (March 30 - April 4)

$3k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in 4 days

100%

March 30

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

$8k Vol.
$39k Liq.
Ends in 30 days

51%

20+

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

48%

30-34

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

$12k Vol.
$50k Liq.
Ends in 30 days

36%

0-10

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 30-Apr 5)

$970 Vol.
$38k Liq.
Ends in 5 days

18%

25-29

DeepSeek V4 released by...?

DeepSeek V4 released by...?

$897k Vol.
$23k Liq.
1
Ends in 15 days

78%

April 30

Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

$2.9m Vol.
$83k Liq.
163
Ends in 30 days

69%

June 30, 2026

Gemini 3.5 released by...?

Gemini 3.5 released by...?

$811k Vol.
$72k Liq.
50
Ends in 3 months

43%

June 30

Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by...?

Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by...?

$41k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 30 days

76%

April 30

Claude Mythos released by…?

Claude Mythos released by…?

$43k Vol.
$20k Liq.
1
Ends in 30 days

71%

June 30

GPT-5.5 released by...?

GPT-5.5 released by...?

$298k Vol.
$16k Liq.
4

94%

June 30

GPT-6 released by…?

GPT-6 released by…?

$359k Vol.
$34k Liq.
40
Ended

82%

December 31, 2026

Grok 5 released by...?

Grok 5 released by...?

$288k Vol.
$12k Liq.
29
Ends in 3 months

21%

June 30, 2026

Claude 4.7 released by...?

Claude 4.7 released by...?

$63k Vol.
$14k Liq.
6
Ends in 3 months

49%

June 30