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AllSportsPoliticsScienceIranWeatherRussiaUkraineSyriaTrumpMiddle EastIsraelVenezuelaStrait Of HormuzChinaOilCrimeaPandemicsCultureLebanonMexicoSupreme Court GeopoliticsSoccerIraqTrump PresidencyTariffsTrade WarForeign PolicyCartelMeaslesWorldKhameneiTrump PutinClimate & ScienceShipIEEPAMexico Cartel WarEl MenchoMenchoIran RegimeRegional SpilloverIran CeasefireU.S. X IranIsrael X IranHormuz
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Geopolitics·Khamenei

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

$446k Vol.
$33k Liq.
50
Ends in 3 months

84%

Yes

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

$7.5m Vol.
$32k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

98%

↑2k

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

Politics·Tariffs

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

$1.2m Vol.
$39k Liq.
28
Ends in about 4 hours

98%

5–15%

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Measles · Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

$38k Vol.
$18k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

90%

1800

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

Politics·iraq

U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?

$379k Vol.
$21k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours

19%

April 30

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

Climate & Science·Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

Measles cases in U.S. by March 31?

$391k Vol.
$23k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours

0%

1600

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

Politics·U.S. x Iran

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

$109k Vol.
$12k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours

2%

Yes

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?

Geopolitics·Oil

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?

$9k Vol.
$11k Liq.
Ends in 15 days

30%

Yes

U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?

Politics·Israel

U.S. evacuates Jerusalem embassy by March 31?

$54k Vol.
$8k Liq.
3
Ends in about 4 hours

1%

Yes

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?

World·Mexico

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?

$1.4m Vol.
$31k Liq.
Ends in 3 months

28%

June 30

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?

Politics·Trump

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?

$142k Vol.
$12k Liq.
15
Ends in about 4 hours

1%

Yes

U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

Politics · Geopolitics

U.S. Ambassador to Poland out by March 31?

$5k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in about 4 hours

0%

Yes

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

Politics·Iran

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

$101k Vol.
$7k Liq.
1
Ends in about 4 hours

2%

Yes

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

Politics·mencho

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

$52k Vol.
$41k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

57%

June 30

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Politics·Israel x Iran

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

$3k Vol.
$6k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

14%

Yes

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

Politics·Middle East

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

$419k Vol.
$10k Liq.
3
Ends in 3 months

32%

Yes

Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

Geopolitics·Iran

Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?

$45k Vol.
$16k Liq.
2
Ends in about 4 hours

0%

Yes

Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?

Culture·Sports

Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?

$8k Vol.
$364 Liq.
Ends in 2 months

16%

Yes

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

Politics·Trump-Putin

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

$582k Vol.
$8k Liq.
38
Ends in 3 months

13%

Yes

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

World·Trump

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

$14k Vol.
$7k Liq.
Ends in 9 months

22%

Yes