Strait Of Hormuz Predictions & Odds· 123 markets

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?

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5
Ends in about 1 month

40%

United States

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?

$1.5m Vol.
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Ends in about 16 hours

97%

0-10

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?

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Ends in 4 days

79%

0-10

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

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96
Ends in about 1 month

20%

Yes

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

55%

20-24

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

$603k Vol.
$43k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours

6%

20+

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

38%

30-34

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

$11k Vol.
$51k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

37%

0-10

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

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61%

20+

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?

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117
Ends in about 16 hours

31%

April 30

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?

$22k Vol.
$11k Liq.
3
Ends in about 1 month

12%

Yes

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

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30
Ends in about 1 month

39%

April 30

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

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201
Ends in 1 day

43%

June 30

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?

$107k Vol.
$13k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours

2%

Yes

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?

$706k Vol.
$15k Liq.
Ends in about 16 hours

38%

April 30

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

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$21k Liq.
Ends in about 1 month

15%

April 10

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

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$26k Liq.
2
Ends in 9 months

33%

Yes

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?

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$30k Liq.
6
Ends in about 1 month

9%

April 10

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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4
Ends in 3 months

9%

Pete Hegseth

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

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74%

December 31